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Network analysis a new approach to uncover long-distance connections between climate tipping elements

A figure showing potential tipping elements in the Earth system, uncovered by the study at hand

Tipping elements are regions that are vulnerable to climate change and capable of sudden drastic changes. However, it is not well understood to what degree tipping of one element in the system can influence other tipping elements. In this study, the researchers establish long-distance connections (teleconnections) between tipping elements using network analysis – thus applying a new approach in climatology.

Teng Liu, Merge-researcher Deliang Chen and colleagues, have studied how the tipping of one component of the Earth system can influence other regions or tipping elements. In this study, the researchers constructed a series of dynamical and physical climate networks, based on the global near-surface air temperature field, to systematically study the global impacts of the Amazon.

Influences of the Amazon on the Tibetan Plateau and the West Antarctic

The Amazon is the world’s largest rainforest, and in The Sixth Assessment Report of IPCC it was highlighted that continued deforestation and warming raise the probability that the Amazon will cross a tipping point into a dry state. However, global influences of rainforest dieback in the Amazon are still little known.

By developing a network-based framework to reveal the global impact of the Amazon, the researchers found that there is a planetary pattern of strongly localized impacts of the Amazon and some specific regions, such as the Tibetan Plateau and West Antarctic. They could establish that there is a propagation pathway between the Amazon Rainforest area and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. This was explained by the steady and strong ocean currents and westerly winds near the West Antarctic area, with transportation of dust and carbonaceous aerosols causing the teleconnection. 

Models created in the study could also show that the teleconnection propagation path between the Amazon and the Tibetan Plateau is robust under climate change, and that various climate extremes between the two are synchronized in a changing climate. Hence, The Tibetan Plateau should play an important role as a component in the list of tipping element, which has previously been overlooked.

A model to help improve disaster preparedness and climate adaptation

In the context of climate change, disaster phenomena such as floods, droughts and sea level rises have become more frequent and threatening. Thus, global, national, and regional preparedness and response to extreme weather are facing challenges. 

The framework based on network theory that was used for this study, provides a potential path to understand the linkage of tipping elements of the complex Earth system. An increased comprehension of the interdependency among components of the earth systems is of emerging importance for climate adaptation and can help engaging more stakeholder groups to perform early actions to reduce tipping points-related damages.

A figure showing potential tipping elements in the Earth system, uncovered by the study at hand
The numbered symbols show the potential tipping elements in the Earth system. The dashed yellow lines show the possible connections between these tipping elements and the solid red lines show teleconnection uncovered in this article. The arrows show the direction of the influence.

More information

The article was published in nature climate change:

Teleconnections among tipping elements  in the Earth system